Knockout bracket

Most-likely occupant of each slot, from the Elo + Monte-Carlo projection. 20,000 simulations. Tap any pale (<60%) tie to see the other contenders.

Highlight a team's path: Showing Argentina's most likely route.

Round of 32

M73 · Sun 28 20:00 · Los Angeles tap for others ▾

South Korea 73%

Switzerland 60%

Runner-up Grp A — could also be

South Africa 19%

Czech Republic 4%

Mexico 4%

Runner-up Grp B — could also be

Canada 40%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 1%

Qatar 0%

M76 · Mon 29 18:00 · Houston tap for others ▾

Brazil 59%

Japan 35%

Winner Grp C — could also be

Morocco 32%

Scotland 9%

Haiti 0%

Runner-up Grp F — could also be

Netherlands 33%

Sweden 31%

Tunisia 1%

M74 · Mon 29 21:30 · Boston tap for others ▾

Germany 85%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 30%

Winner Grp E — could also be

Ivory Coast 14%

Ecuador 0%

Curaçao 0%

3rd A/B/C/D/F — could also be

Qatar 24%

South Korea 16%

Scotland 10%

M75 · 🌙 Mon 29 02:00 · Monterrey tap for others ▾

Netherlands 51%

Morocco 44%

Winner Grp F — could also be

Sweden 29%

Japan 20%

Tunisia 0%

Runner-up Grp C — could also be

Brazil 33%

Scotland 23%

Haiti 0%

M78 · Tue 30 18:00 · Dallas

Ivory Coast 75%

Norway 60%

Runner-up Grp E — could also be

Germany 13%

Ecuador 10%

Curaçao 2%

Runner-up Grp I — could also be

Senegal 29%

France 10%

Iraq 0%

M77 · Tue 30 22:00 · New York/New Jersey tap for others ▾

France 89%

Scotland 25%

Winner Grp I — could also be

Norway 10%

Senegal 1%

Iraq 0%

3rd C/D/F/G/H — could also be

Turkey 22%

Paraguay 15%

Australia 11%

M79 · 🌙 Tue 30 02:00 · Mexico City tap for others ▾

Mexico 96%

Ecuador 40%

Winner Grp A — could also be

South Korea 4%

3rd C/E/F/H/I — could also be

Scotland 16%

Sweden 10%

Japan 7%

M80 · Wed 1 17:00 · Atlanta tap for others ▾

England 97%

DR Congo 37%

Winner Grp L — could also be

Croatia 1%

Ghana 1%

Panama 0%

3rd E/H/I/J/K — could also be

Uzbekistan 14%

Colombia 14%

Portugal 10%

M82 · Wed 1 21:00 · Seattle tap for others ▾

Belgium 68%

Saudi Arabia 20%

Winner Grp G — could also be

Egypt 22%

Iran 8%

New Zealand 2%

3rd A/E/H/I/J — could also be

Cape Verde 16%

Senegal 16%

Uruguay 13%

M81 · 🌙 Wed 1 01:00 · San Francisco Bay Area tap for others ▾

USA 81%

Sweden 20%

Winner Grp D — could also be

Australia 17%

Turkey 1%

Paraguay 1%

3rd B/E/F/I/J — could also be

Japan 16%

Senegal 14%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 11%

M84 · Thu 2 20:00 · Los Angeles

Spain 70%

Austria 73%

Winner Grp H — could also be

Uruguay 24%

Saudi Arabia 3%

Cape Verde 3%

Runner-up Grp J — could also be

Algeria 20%

Argentina 6%

Jordan 2%

M83 · 🌙 Thu 2 00:00 · Toronto tap for others ▾

Portugal 39%

Croatia 71%

Runner-up Grp K — could also be

Colombia 39%

DR Congo 20%

Uzbekistan 2%

Runner-up Grp L — could also be

Ghana 26%

England 3%

Panama 1%

M85 · 🌙 Thu 2 04:00 · Vancouver tap for others ▾

Canada 60%

Iran 18%

Winner Grp B — could also be

Switzerland 40%

3rd E/F/G/I/J — could also be

Algeria 14%

Egypt 14%

New Zealand 10%

M88 · Fri 3 19:00 · Dallas tap for others ▾

Australia 63%

Egypt 48%

Runner-up Grp D — could also be

USA 16%

Paraguay 13%

Turkey 8%

Runner-up Grp G — could also be

Belgium 25%

Iran 19%

New Zealand 8%

M86 · Fri 3 23:00 · Miami tap for others ▾

Argentina 94%

Uruguay 43%

Winner Grp J — could also be

Austria 6%

Algeria 0%

Jordan 0%

Runner-up Grp H — could also be

Spain 22%

Cape Verde 18%

Saudi Arabia 17%

M87 · 🌙 Fri 3 02:30 · Kansas City tap for others ▾

Portugal 48%

Ghana 48%

Winner Grp K — could also be

Colombia 46%

DR Congo 6%

Uzbekistan 0%

3rd D/E/I/J/L — could also be

Croatia 17%

Turkey 7%

Algeria 5%

Round of 16

M90 · Sat 4 18:00 · Houston tap for others ▾

Switzerland 39%

Netherlands 29%

Winner M73 — could also be

South Korea 30%

Canada 22%

South Africa 5%

Winner M75 — could also be

Brazil 22%

Morocco 21%

Sweden 12%

M89 · Sat 4 22:00 · Philadelphia

Germany 68%

France 74%

Winner M74 — could also be

Ivory Coast 8%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 6%

South Korea 5%

Winner M77 — could also be

Norway 6%

Scotland 4%

Turkey 4%

M91 · Sun 5 21:00 · New York/New Jersey tap for others ▾

Brazil 41%

Norway 33%

Winner M76 — could also be

Netherlands 17%

Morocco 16%

Japan 12%

Winner M78 — could also be

Ivory Coast 31%

Senegal 15%

Germany 9%

M92 · 🌙 Sun 5 01:00 · Mexico City

Mexico 65%

England 78%

Winner M79 — could also be

Ecuador 11%

Scotland 5%

Sweden 3%

Winner M80 — could also be

DR Congo 6%

Colombia 4%

Portugal 4%

M93 · Mon 6 20:00 · Dallas tap for others ▾

Croatia 35%

Spain 54%

Winner M83 — could also be

Portugal 26%

Colombia 22%

Ghana 8%

Winner M84 — could also be

Austria 21%

Uruguay 14%

Algeria 4%

M94 · 🌙 Mon 6 01:00 · Seattle tap for others ▾

USA 55%

Belgium 48%

Winner M81 — could also be

Sweden 8%

Australia 8%

Japan 7%

Winner M82 — could also be

Egypt 11%

Uruguay 7%

Senegal 6%

M95 · Tue 7 17:00 · Atlanta tap for others ▾

Argentina 73%

Australia 30%

Winner M86 — could also be

Uruguay 11%

Spain 10%

Austria 3%

Winner M88 — could also be

Egypt 23%

Belgium 17%

USA 11%

M96 · Tue 7 21:00 · Vancouver tap for others ▾

Canada 38%

Portugal 36%

Winner M85 — could also be

Switzerland 26%

Iran 6%

Egypt 5%

Winner M87 — could also be

Colombia 31%

Ghana 13%

Croatia 8%

Quarter-final

M97 · Thu 9 21:00 · Boston tap for others ▾

France 53%

Netherlands 20%

Winner M89 — could also be

Germany 30%

Norway 2%

Scotland 2%

Winner M90 — could also be

Switzerland 17%

Brazil 17%

Morocco 13%

M98 · Fri 10 20:00 · Los Angeles tap for others ▾

Spain 37%

USA 33%

Winner M93 — could also be

Croatia 14%

Portugal 14%

Colombia 9%

Winner M94 — could also be

Belgium 27%

Senegal 4%

Egypt 4%

M99 · Sat 11 22:00 · Miami tap for others ▾

Brazil 29%

England 55%

Winner M91 — could also be

Norway 12%

Netherlands 11%

Ivory Coast 9%

Winner M92 — could also be

Mexico 26%

Ecuador 3%

Colombia 2%

M100 · 🌙 Sat 11 02:00 · Kansas City tap for others ▾

Argentina 61%

Portugal 24%

Winner M95 — could also be

Spain 7%

Uruguay 7%

Belgium 6%

Winner M96 — could also be

Colombia 18%

Canada 17%

Switzerland 13%

Semi-final

M101 · Tue 14 20:00 · Dallas tap for others ▾

France 39%

Spain 27%

Winner M97 — could also be

Germany 18%

Brazil 10%

Netherlands 9%

Winner M98 — could also be

USA 16%

Belgium 13%

Portugal 9%

M102 · Wed 15 20:00 · Atlanta tap for others ▾

England 36%

Argentina 48%

Winner M99 — could also be

Brazil 17%

Mexico 11%

Netherlands 6%

Winner M100 — could also be

Portugal 11%

Colombia 6%

Spain 5%

Final

M104 · Sun 19 20:00 · New York/New Jersey tap for others ▾

France 27%

Argentina 31%

Winner M101 — could also be

Spain 15%

Germany 10%

USA 7%

Winner M102 — could also be

England 21%

Brazil 9%

Portugal 6%

Predicted winner

🏆

Argentina

21%

to lift the trophy

France 17%

England 12%

Spain 10%

Brazil 8%

Third-place play-off

M103 · Sat 18 22:00 · Miami tap for others ▾

France 12%

Argentina 16%

Loser M101 — could also be

Spain 12%

USA 9%

Germany 9%

Loser M102 — could also be

England 16%

Brazil 8%

Mexico 7%

Title odds

Argentina 21%

France 17%

England 12%

Spain 10%

Brazil 8%

Germany 5%

Portugal 5%

Netherlands 4%

Belgium 3%

USA 3%

Colombia 2%

Morocco 1%